Post-Covid-Events Results Summary Report
- Summary
- Cohorts relative to vaccine introduction and variants
- Cohort selection flow charts
- Pre-vaccinated Cohort Flow
- Vaccinated Cohort Flow
- Unvaccinated Cohort Flow
- Table: Patient characteristics of those without COVID history for each cohort and numbers of people who were exposed to COVID-19.
- Table: Numbers of events in OpenSAFELY before and after diagnosis of COVID-19.
- Figure: Maximally adjusted hazard ratios (log scale) for different diabetes events by time since diagnosis of COVID-19.
- Figure: Maximally adjusted hazard ratios (log scale) for Type-2 Diabetes by time since diagnosis of Hospitalised / Non-Hospitalised COVID-19.
- Figure: Maximally adjusted hazard ratios (log scale) for Type-2 Diabetes by time since diagnosis of COVID-19 for Age, Sex and Ethnicity Subgroups.
- Figure: Maximally adjusted hazard ratios (log scale) for Type-2 Diabetes by time since diagnosis of COVID-19 (full time points).
- Figure: Maximally adjusted hazard ratios (log scale) for Type-2 Diabetes by time since diagnosis of COVID-19 for Stratified by History of Obesity or Pre-Diabetes.
- Diabetes flow charts: showing the assignment of diabetes cases using the diabetes diagnostic algorithm.
- Table: Describing the number of Type-2 Diabetes cases diagnosed in each cohort throughout the study period using numbers from the diabetes flow charts.
Summary
This is a brief report to provide a summary of results from the post-covid-events analyses performed in OpenSAFELY. Cohorts = Pre-Vaccination Outcome = Diabetes (Type-2, Type-1, Unspecified). PLEASE NOTE that these results are preliminary and subject to change.
Cohorts relative to vaccine introduction and variants
Data downloaded as CSV from here
N.B.includes B, Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants. Data additionally
downloaded from here
for pre-September-2020 case estimates before variant monitoring was
present.
Cohort selection flow charts
Pre-vaccinated Cohort Flow
Vaccinated Cohort Flow
Unvaccinated Cohort Flow
Table: Patient characteristics of those without COVID history for each cohort and numbers of people who were exposed to COVID-19.
| Covariate | Covariate Level | Prevaccinated Population | Prevaccinated N Diagnosed with COVID 19 risk per 100 000 | Vaccinated Population | Vaccinated N Diagnosed with COVID 19 risk per 100 000 | Unvaccinated Population | Unvaccinated N Diagnosed with COVID 19 risk per 100 000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | All | 15,175,714 (100) | 826,582 (5,447) | 11,789,177 (100) | 749,030 (6,354) | 2,859,217 (100) | 147,221 (5,149) |
| sex | Female | 7,661,354 (50.5) | 450,927 (5,886) | 6,215,420 (52.7) | 422,129 (6,792) | 1,175,305 (41.1) | 78,623 (6,690) |
| sex | Male | 7,514,360 (49.5) | 375,655 (4,999) | 5,573,757 (47.3) | 326,901 (5,865) | 1,683,912 (58.9) | 68,598 (4,074) |
| ethnicity | White | 11,903,511 (78.4) | 620,076 (5,209) | 9,707,785 (82.3) | 638,738 (6,580) | 1,779,237 (62.2) | 112,236 (6,308) |
| ethnicity | Mixed | 172,865 (1.1) | 11,633 (6,730) | 106,623 (0.9) | 6,461 (6,060) | 69,993 (2.4) | 3,656 (5,223) |
| ethnicity | South Asian | 898,418 (5.9) | 91,607 (10,196) | 602,213 (5.1) | 31,935 (5,303) | 275,991 (9.7) | 9,083 (3,291) |
| ethnicity | Black | 310,993 (2) | 21,368 (6,871) | 172,488 (1.5) | 7,751 (4,494) | 147,557 (5.2) | 7,089 (4,804) |
| ethnicity | Other | 324,162 (2.1) | 16,366 (5,049) | 197,166 (1.7) | 9,022 (4,576) | 160,219 (5.6) | 3,869 (2,415) |
| ethnicity | Missing | 1,565,765 (10.3) | 65,532 (4,185) | 1,002,902 (8.5) | 55,123 (5,496) | 426,220 (14.9) | 11,288 (2,648) |
| deprivation | 1-2 (most deprived) | 2,884,715 (19) | 199,770 (6,925) | 1,855,885 (15.7) | 112,614 (6,068) | 853,767 (29.9) | 44,237 (5,181) |
| deprivation | 3-4 | 2,979,353 (19.6) | 178,027 (5,975) | 2,178,752 (18.5) | 135,956 (6,240) | 686,486 (24) | 34,821 (5,072) |
| deprivation | 5-6 | 3,270,564 (21.6) | 165,138 (5,049) | 2,608,923 (22.1) | 161,359 (6,185) | 572,151 (20) | 29,274 (5,116) |
| deprivation | 7-8 | 3,125,930 (20.6) | 151,191 (4,837) | 2,608,726 (22.1) | 168,320 (6,452) | 436,022 (15.2) | 22,481 (5,156) |
| deprivation | 9-10 (least deprived) | 2,915,152 (19.2) | 132,456 (4,544) | 2,536,891 (21.5) | 170,781 (6,732) | 310,791 (10.9) | 16,408 (5,279) |
| region | East | 3,573,633 (23.5) | 190,145 (5,321) | 2,803,397 (23.8) | 161,606 (5,765) | 651,907 (22.8) | 34,026 (5,219) |
| region | East Midlands | 2,660,822 (17.5) | 157,083 (5,904) | 2,062,410 (17.5) | 138,181 (6,700) | 469,981 (16.4) | 28,224 (6,005) |
| region | London | 953,066 (6.3) | 52,592 (5,518) | 601,019 (5.1) | 31,973 (5,320) | 402,794 (14.1) | 10,645 (2,643) |
| region | North East | 745,041 (4.9) | 50,517 (6,780) | 570,462 (4.8) | 43,106 (7,556) | 123,655 (4.3) | 7,181 (5,807) |
| region | North West | 1,351,813 (8.9) | 89,454 (6,617) | 1,061,351 (9) | 75,200 (7,085) | 194,470 (6.8) | 11,823 (6,080) |
| region | South East | 1,012,424 (6.7) | 41,114 (4,061) | 826,297 (7) | 50,120 (6,066) | 172,818 (6) | 8,829 (5,109) |
| region | South West | 2,137,597 (14.1) | 63,752 (2,982) | 1,838,482 (15.6) | 113,835 (6,192) | 286,399 (10) | 17,461 (6,097) |
| region | West Midlands | 576,450 (3.8) | 42,844 (7,432) | 399,351 (3.4) | 24,838 (6,220) | 148,932 (5.2) | 7,454 (5,005) |
| region | Yorkshire and The Humber | 2,164,868 (14.3) | 139,081 (6,424) | 1,626,408 (13.8) | 110,171 (6,774) | 408,261 (14.3) | 21,578 (5,285) |
| smoking status | Never smoker | 7,088,744 (46.7) | 422,829 (5,965) | 5,619,699 (47.7) | 371,342 (6,608) | 1,178,313 (41.2) | 59,118 (5,017) |
| smoking status | Ever smoker | 4,781,706 (31.5) | 250,809 (5,245) | 4,107,299 (34.8) | 280,313 (6,825) | 560,552 (19.6) | 42,410 (7,566) |
| smoking status | Current smoker | 2,650,985 (17.5) | 115,959 (4,374) | 1,668,733 (14.2) | 82,264 (4,930) | 785,342 (27.5) | 37,154 (4,731) |
| smoking status | Missing | 654,279 (4.3) | 36,985 (5,653) | 393,446 (3.3) | 15,111 (3,841) | 335,010 (11.7) | 8,539 (2,549) |
| bmi groups | Healthy_weight | 4,806,928 (31.7) | 231,382 (4,814) | 3,730,127 (31.6) | 229,980 (6,165) | 931,142 (32.6) | 46,758 (5,022) |
| bmi groups | Underweight | 283,648 (1.9) | 13,039 (4,597) | 203,769 (1.7) | 9,397 (4,612) | 80,957 (2.8) | 3,419 (4,223) |
| bmi groups | Overweight | 4,451,907 (29.3) | 234,464 (5,267) | 3,680,896 (31.2) | 239,204 (6,499) | 587,603 (20.6) | 35,693 (6,074) |
| bmi groups | Obese | 3,155,545 (20.8) | 199,987 (6,338) | 2,675,675 (22.7) | 194,995 (7,288) | 364,290 (12.7) | 28,619 (7,856) |
| bmi groups | Missing | 2,477,686 (16.3) | 147,710 (5,962) | 1,498,710 (12.7) | 75,454 (5,035) | 895,225 (31.3) | 32,732 (3,656) |
| age group | 18-29 | 2,766,105 (18.2) | 216,349 (7,821) | 1,572,826 (13.3) | 84,052 (5,344) | 881,360 (30.8) | 40,039 (4,543) |
| age group | 30-39 | 2,813,879 (18.5) | 183,955 (6,537) | 1,772,688 (15) | 134,877 (7,609) | 876,730 (30.7) | 51,058 (5,824) |
| age group | 40-49 | 2,682,572 (17.7) | 168,528 (6,282) | 1,979,944 (16.8) | 214,431 (10,830) | 550,325 (19.2) | 33,775 (6,137) |
| age group | 50-59 | 2,755,651 (18.2) | 154,407 (5,603) | 2,344,031 (19.9) | 179,121 (7,642) | 321,822 (11.3) | 16,044 (4,985) |
| age group | 60-69 | 1,996,255 (13.2) | 66,053 (3,309) | 1,867,109 (15.8) | 85,034 (4,554) | 145,286 (5.1) | 4,621 (3,181) |
| age group | 70-79 | 1,492,285 (9.8) | 25,991 (1,742) | 1,512,358 (12.8) | 39,359 (2,602) | 59,091 (2.1) | 1,206 (2,041) |
| age group | 80-89 | 585,198 (3.9) | 8,852 (1,513) | 627,148 (5.3) | 10,279 (1,639) | 19,754 (0.7) | 405 (2,050) |
| age group | 90+ | 83,769 (0.6) | 2,447 (2,921) | 113,073 (1) | 1,877 (1,660) | 4,849 (0.2) | 73 (1,505) |
| consulation rate group | 0 | 4,251,535 (28) | 188,009 (4,422) | 2,926,673 (24.8) | 170,113 (5,813) | 1,550,844 (54.2) | 45,547 (2,937) |
| consulation rate group | 1 to 6 | 5,957,458 (39.3) | 347,783 (5,838) | 4,812,285 (40.8) | 320,995 (6,670) | 804,368 (28.1) | 57,319 (7,126) |
| consulation rate group | 6+ | 4,966,721 (32.7) | 290,790 (5,855) | 4,050,219 (34.4) | 257,922 (6,368) | 504,005 (17.6) | 44,355 (8,801) |
| consulation rate | Mean | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| tc hdl ratio | Mean | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| History of all stroke | TRUE | 176,279 (1.2) | 6,243 (3,542) | 184,967 (1.6) | 6,463 (3,494) | 10,048 (0.4) | 548 (5,454) |
| History of ami | TRUE | 248,660 (1.6) | 8,571 (3,447) | 252,988 (2.1) | 9,412 (3,720) | 12,901 (0.5) | 684 (5,302) |
| History of angina | TRUE | 384,477 (2.5) | 12,426 (3,232) | 381,653 (3.2) | 13,802 (3,616) | 15,388 (0.5) | 810 (5,264) |
| History of cancer | TRUE | 4,581,503 (30.2) | 282,844 (6,174) | 4,091,955 (34.7) | 321,575 (7,859) | 542,092 (19) | 50,801 (9,371) |
| History of carehome status | TRUE | 25,655 (0.2) | 3,972 (15,482) | 29,267 (0.2) | 1,378 (4,708) | 2,000 (0.1) | 70 (3,500) |
| History of chronic kidney disease | TRUE | 637,649 (4.2) | 21,221 (3,328) | 654,909 (5.6) | 22,271 (3,401) | 30,240 (1.1) | 1,777 (5,876) |
| History of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease | TRUE | 374,624 (2.5) | 12,697 (3,389) | 368,930 (3.1) | 13,582 (3,681) | 20,837 (0.7) | 1,001 (4,804) |
| History of dementia | TRUE | 81,044 (0.5) | 5,399 (6,662) | 94,867 (0.8) | 2,915 (3,073) | 3,017 (0.1) | 154 (5,104) |
| History of depression | TRUE | 4,212,896 (27.8) | 239,556 (5,686) | 3,494,127 (29.6) | 239,874 (6,865) | 631,362 (22.1) | 47,049 (7,452) |
| History of diabetes gestational | TRUE | 82,980 (0.5) | 6,448 (7,771) | 75,904 (0.6) | 8,444 (11,125) | 22,478 (0.8) | 2,561 (11,393) |
| History of healthcare worker | TRUE | 480,633 (3.2) | 55,407 (11,528) | 414,767 (3.5) | 33,701 (8,125) | 17,582 (0.6) | 2,084 (11,853) |
| History of hf | TRUE | 180,577 (1.2) | 6,366 (3,525) | 204,741 (1.7) | 7,166 (3,500) | 8,572 (0.3) | 476 (5,553) |
| History of hypertension | TRUE | 4,358,003 (28.7) | 201,059 (4,614) | 3,999,711 (33.9) | 212,405 (5,311) | 372,096 (13) | 27,135 (7,292) |
| History of liver disease | TRUE | 85,527 (0.6) | 3,951 (4,620) | 78,270 (0.7) | 3,746 (4,786) | 12,788 (0.4) | 651 (5,091) |
| History of other arterial embolism | TRUE | 68,884 (0.5) | 2,692 (3,908) | 83,968 (0.7) | 3,513 (4,184) | 4,914 (0.2) | 281 (5,718) |
| History of prediabetes | TRUE | 731,601 (4.8) | 30,118 (4,117) | 821,101 (7) | 35,836 (4,364) | 52,224 (1.8) | 3,352 (6,419) |
| History of vte | TRUE | 216,641 (1.4) | 9,425 (4,351) | 214,363 (1.8) | 11,133 (5,194) | 21,533 (0.8) | 1,662 (7,718) |
Table: Numbers of events in OpenSAFELY before and after diagnosis of COVID-19.
To be completed.
Figure: Maximally adjusted hazard ratios (log scale) for different diabetes events by time since diagnosis of COVID-19.
N.B. There were too few events for Other or Non-Specific Diabetes in the Unvaccinated Cohort.
Figure: Maximally adjusted hazard ratios (log scale) for Type-2 Diabetes by time since diagnosis of Hospitalised / Non-Hospitalised COVID-19.
Figure: Maximally adjusted hazard ratios (log scale) for Type-2 Diabetes by time since diagnosis of COVID-19 for Age, Sex and Ethnicity Subgroups.
